Assessing the Invasion Risk of the Non-Native Species Persian Squirrel : Spatial Patterns and Determinants in Central Iran

The introduction of non‑native and invasive species is a major threat to ecosystems and a leading cause of extinction. The Persian squirrel, or Caucasian squirrel (Sciurus anomalus), is an introduced species that has been present in central Iran for many years. This study investigates the genetic diversity and origin of Persian squirrel populations and evaluates their response to current and future climate change in a specific region of central Iran. Specimens were collected from the species’ distribution range, and genetic analyses were performed using the mitochondrial D‑loop gene along with 40 sequences obtained from GenBank. An ensemble modelling approach was also used to develop current and future species distribution models (SDMs). Future projections were based on two shared socio‑economic pathways (SSP126 and SSP585) from the MRI‑ESM2 model using CMIP6 data. The results show that all examined specimens originated from Chaharmahal‑Bakhtiari and Hamadan provinces, corresponding to the northern and southern Zagros regions. High genetic and haplotype diversity was detected, which may increase the adaptability and success of this non‑native species in central Iran. Additionally, SDM outputs indicate that climate change will significantly influence the species’ distribution, with a likely expansion of suitable habitat over time.